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Especially on the shared prosperity side. Moreover, the document concludes that post conflict, Colombia could reach a per capita Gross National Income of 12.000 dollars by 2028 (from approximately $7.100 in 2015), confirming the country as an upper middle income one.
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The official estimate from the National Planning Department is that the country would have up to an additional 1.9% of growth each year (Gaviria, 2015). Implementation of the Peace plan will imply some temporary costs, already embedded in fiscal projections but falling short from those potential growth gains.
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According to them, the Peace dividend on growth could be something between 2 to 4 percentage points per year – for a survey, see Zuleta and Gomez (2016). Several studies have quantified the potential effects of reducing or eliminating conflict with the guerrillas. Colombia’s conflict has affected human capital accumulation, savings and investment decisions and growth in general. Peace consolidation will create economic benefits by improving business confidence, preserving infrastructure, reintegrating areas economically and enhancing social equity.Īlthough consolidating a sustainable peace remains a huge challenge, Colombia may benefit from a positive feedback loop between peace and economic growth-cum-poverty-reduction. It will open up more opportunities for sharing prosperity and sustaining Colombia’s growth and poverty reduction path (Canuto, George, and Fleischhaker, 2015). Without a doubt, this is a historic milestone for Colombia and for the region. That puts an end to more than 50 years of conflict. More than 6.000 FARC members are already concentrated in specific areas of the country where they will render their arms to the UN and other international observers before June. The Peace Agreement covers six areas: rural development FARC reintegration and participation in politics victims’ right to truth, justice and reparation transitional justice drug trafficking cease fire and implementation. The reform also simplifies the tax system (streamlining regulations) and boosts formalization in the labor market, besides adopting anti-evasion measures, including jail sentences for tax fraud offenses. The Colombian tax structure will reduce its current imbalanced dependence on corporate taxes ( Chart 3 – right side). The reform aims to collect about 3 percent of GDP in 2022, increasing the VAT from 16% to 19% and raising a new tax on dividends for individual shareholders, while reducing the corporate tax burden from 42% in 2017 to 33% in 2019.
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On the fiscal revenue side, the recently approved tax reform will help protect key social and infrastructure spending while at the same time fostering private investment. Reforming taxes to keep macroeconomic stability Colombia’s real GDP growth forecast at 2.5% in 2017 by the World Bank and the IMF remains higher than the 1.3% for the region. Growth is expected to gradually increase thanks to an ambitious infrastructure plan (mainly on roads and public and private housing), a continuous structural reform agenda at both national and subnational levels, a lower inflation rate boosting consumption, the on-going partial recovery in oil prices and greater dynamism in the rural sector. According to the IMF, despite the recent terms of trade shock, Colombia continues to outperform the regional average growth, the decline in investment from its peak has been the smallest and the country has been the one with fastest pace of job creation (Werner, 2017).